12/03/2015 //
With all of the major companies in our survey (except Medtronic) having now reported their CY3Q’15 financials, here are the results:
U.S. denominated 3Q’15 global electronic equipment growth was minus 3.8% (Chart 1) when calculated at fluctuating exchange rates.
Currency exchange rates had a major impact as growth at constant 2014 exchange was plus 3% versus almost minus 4% at fluctuating exchange when non-dollar currencies were converted to strong dollars (Chart 2).
Historical revenues by major electronic equipment product group are given in Chart 3.
Chart 4 shows 3Q’15 versus 3Q’14 growth by sector of the global electronic supply chain. Note that these growth values are at fluctuating exchange.
Historical consolidated revenues, net income and inventory data for some key product groups are as follows: Each chart shows the companies used in the consolidation. All U.S. dollar consolidations are at fluctuating exchange rates.
Source: Company financial reports consolidated and analyzed by Custer Consulting Group
Markit Economics released preliminary November PMI leading indicator data for the USA, Japan, the Eurozone, Germany and France. All countries’ manufacturing sectors were in growth territory (Chart 17).
U.S. PMI - Domestic Growth Continues (Chart 18)
Markit Economics “flash” November PMI shows the U.S. manufacturing sector to be on a continuous expansion since 2009. Although the rate of this domestic manufacturing expansion has recently slowed, the PMI remains well above 50, the demarcation between growth and contraction.
Eurozone Manufacturing Sector Growth Accelerates (Chart 19)M
Chris Williamson, Chief Economist at Markit said: “The PMI shows a welcome acceleration of eurozone growth, putting the region on course for one of its best quarterly performances over the past 4 1/2 years. The data are signaling GDP growth of 0.4% in the closing quarter of the year, with 0.5% in sight if we get even just a modest uptick in December. “The improved performance in terms of economic growth and job creation seen in November are all the more impressive given last weekend’s tragic events in Paris, which subdued economic activity in France–especially in the service sector. “However, with recent comments from ECB chief Mario Draghi highlighting how the central bank remains disappointed with the strength of the upturn at this stage of the recovery, November’s slightly improved PMI reading will no doubt do little to dissuade policymakers that more needs to be done at their December meeting to ensure stronger and more sustainable growth.”
Japan Production Increases at Sharpest Pace since March 2014 (Chart 20)
Commenting on the Japanese Manufacturing PMI survey data, Amy Brownbill, Economist at Markit said: “Latest survey data pointed to a substantial improvement in operating conditions at Japanese manufacturers.
Growth in production accelerated to the sharpest since March 2014, while new orders increased at a marked rate. Meanwhile, international demand rose sharply as growth in new export orders picked up to a 5-month high. Subsequently, both buying activity and employment rose during the month, with both expanding at the fastest rates in over 1 1/2 years.
Input prices rose at the fastest rate in four months, although inflation remained historically muted.
Source: www.markiteconomics.com
The U.S. Department of Commerce just released its October “Durable Goods” report with preliminary data for the domestic electronic supply chain.
Source: www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/
The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than initially estimated in the third quarter as the domestic economy appears likely to close out 2015 with modest growth.
Source: www.bea.gov/national/
Walt Custer is an industry analyst focused on the global electronics industry. Prior to forming Custer Consulting Group he was Vice President of Marketing and Sales for Morton Electronic Materials, a global supplier of specialty chemicals and process equipment for the PCB industry.
Custer has been a member of the IPC trade organization since 1975 where he received both the President's and the Raymond E. Pritchard Hall of Fame Awards. He is currently a member of the IPC Executive Market & Technology Steering Committee. Custer is also a Director of the EIPC European PCB trade organization.
He authors regular “Market Outlook” columns for Global SMT & Packaging magazine, the Journal of the HKPCA and the TTI MarketEYE website.